ESRI Population Projections by Local Authority

Population projection by scenario, year of age and local authority, for the 4 scenarios described in the project methodology for years 2017-2040. https://www.esri.ie/publications/regional-demographics-and-structural-housing-demand-at-a-county-level

The 4 scenarios are:

Baseline/Business as usual – based on medium term projections for the economy with an underlying assumption that net inwards migration would converge to 15,000 p.a. by 2024 and remain at that level throughout the projection horizon.

50:50 City – based on a similar outlook in terms of net inwards migration but whereby population growth is distributed in line with the objectives of the National Planning Framework (See National Policy Objectives 1a and 2a of https://npf.ie/wp-content/uploads/Project-Ireland-2040-NPF.pdf)

High Migration – assumes that net inwards migration stays at an elevated level throughout the projection horizon (net inwards migration of 30,000 p.a)

Low Migration - assumes that net inwards migration falls to net inwards migration of 5,000 by 2022 before converging back to the business as usual levels (i.e. net inwards migration of 15,000 p.a.) by 2027 and remaining at that level thereafter.

Data and Resources

Additional Info

Field Value
Title ESRI Population Projections by Local Authority
Description Population projection by scenario, year of age and local authority, for the 4 scenarios described in the project methodology for years 2017-2040. https://www.esri.ie/publications/regional-demographics-and-structural-housing-demand-at-a-county-level The 4 scenarios are: Baseline/Business as usual – based on medium term projections for the economy with an underlying assumption that net inwards migration would converge to 15,000 p.a. by 2024 and remain at that level throughout the projection horizon. 50:50 City – based on a similar outlook in terms of net inwards migration but whereby population growth is distributed in line with the objectives of the National Planning Framework (See National Policy Objectives 1a and 2a of https://npf.ie/wp-content/uploads/Project-Ireland-2040-NPF.pdf) High Migration – assumes that net inwards migration stays at an elevated level throughout the projection horizon (net inwards migration of 30,000 p.a) Low Migration - assumes that net inwards migration falls to net inwards migration of 5,000 by 2022 before converging back to the business as usual levels (i.e. net inwards migration of 15,000 p.a.) by 2027 and remaining at that level thereafter.
Geographic coverage in GeoJSON format
Geographic coverage {}
Spatial URI
Vertical Extent
Spatial Reference Systems (SRS)
    Spatial Resolution(s)
    Contact Person Open Data Liaison Officer
    Contact Person Email opendata@housing.gov.ie
    Contact Person Telephone
    Update frequency
    Date dataset released 2021-02-09
    Date dataset updated
    Period of time covered (begin)
    Period of time covered (end)
    OR: specify what period of time the dataset covers
    Landing Page https://opendata.housing.gov.ie/dataset/7b43e71f-374a-4c0f-845c-80362d427457
    Rights notes
    High Value Dataset (HVD)
    High Value Dataset Category
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    Provenance information
    Language English
    Expiration Date